World Events… December 2, 2008

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The event that the World saw on TV last was the attacks in Mumbai.  The attacks were just the first elements of chaos that will be experienced.  It is the reactions of all parties involved that will bring even more chaos to the situation.  It has been established that the terrorists were trained in Pakistan and that portions of Pakistan are used as training camps for Al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and other Islamist radical groups.  It will take a high level of restraint shown by India not to respond with an aggressive military action against Pakistan.

A military response could undermine not only the struggling peace between two rivals but would also affect the U.S. and their efforts to control the Taliban. (NEWS proof)  If India sends more troops to the Pakistani border or conducted raids into the Kashmir area where the terrorist training camps are located, then Pakistan would move more troops into the area also.  These troops that Pakistan would relocate would come from the Afghan border and these were the troops that were assisting the U.S. in controlling the supply routes and fighting the Taliban.  The U.S. would be required to go it alone along the border of Afghanistan without the assistance of Pakistan.  This would be a severe blow to the U.S. and therefore, the U.S. is encouraging India not to send a troop build-up to the Pakistani border.  The other problem is that China supports Pakistan and has for a long time.  If the U.S. sides with India in a military conflict, then China would supply and back-up Pakistan.  Another problem is Pakistan itself.  The civil government of Pakistan cannot and does not control the military or the Intelligence bureau, the Inter-Services Intelligence ( ISI).  Many in the ISI are sympathetic to radical Islamist terrorist groups, the Taliban, and Al-Qaeda.  Therefore, there is not a lot of support from the ISI in controlling the terrorist groups.  Also, many within the military also are sympathetic to radical groups within Pakistan.  This internal conflict is putting the government of Pakistan in a precarious position.  Do they enter into a military maneuver against India or with India to root terrorists and their training camps?  Or, do they do nothing and continue to support the U.S. on the Afghan border.   The choice for Pakistan will come down to either internal unrest with the people and organizations sympathetic to the terrorists.  Or, increase civil strife within a country that is already on the verge of collapsing.

QUESTION: What is the real reason these terrorists performed this attack in Mumbai?

ANSWER: There were many reasons.  First, the attacks were to be much more destructive than they turned out to be.  The terrorists wanted to kill more people than 9/11.  Secondly, the targets were in the financial district and where Westerners and Europeans stayed when they came to India for business.  Next, India and Pakistan have been enemies for decades and these terrorists wanted India to know that they disagreed with them siding with the U.S. on political issues and wanted to cause a domino effect that would bring more confusion and chaos to the region.

QUESTION: Why were these attacks carried out at this particular time?

ANSWER: These attacks were planned for this week because many countries were distracted with a holiday.  It is also a transition period for the U.S. government.  These attacks in Mumbai and the response to them by the U.S. could be a chance for President Bush to make a final military miscalculation.  Or, for President – Elect Obama to be his first major military conflict his first day in office.

QUESTION: How has Pakistan changed since President Musharraf resigned?

ANSWER: President Musharraf had enough problems trying to control his people and assist the U.S. in fighting terrorism.  Now that he’s gone, many of the people he tried to control believe that the U.S. are the terrorists and these groups will side with the Pakistani military and ISI against India and any country supporting India.

QUESTION: What kind of real nuclear threat does this situation pose?

ANSWER: If the civil government of Pakistan collapses and the military and ISI take over, then you have a country that is run by groups sympathetic to radical Muslims and has control of nuclear weapons.

QUESTION: What will this “picking sides” … U.S. with India; China with Pakistan lead to?

ANSWER: It could lead to increased tensions in the entire region.  The U.S. does not want to get into a head-to-head conflict with China.  Nor can they afford not to support India.  Nor can they afford to lose Pakistan’s support and cooperation in fighting the Taliban in the northwest.  The U.S. is in a particularly vulnerable spot, as they must try to please everybody.  In the meantime, another event that hasn’t gotten much attention is that Israel has stepped up attacks in Gaza since rocket fire has increased into Israel.

QUESTION: With all its elements, is there a solution to this situation?

ANSWER: The only solution would be to gain the cooperation and joint effort of Pakistan and India, and China and the U.S. to eradicate all Islamist terrorist groups and destroy all their training camps.  This would be difficult to do since it requires the cooperation of the Pakistani military and intelligence groups as well as the cooperation of the Pakistani people, many who support these radical groups.

QUESTION: While we’re being distracted by this incident, what should we be paying closer attention to?

ANSWER: The U.S. should be paying attention to how easily these terrorists slipped into the country by boats from the sea.  America has much coastline.  Also, the eyes of the world should be on Israel and the growing tensions there.

QUESTION: How will this event affect the relationship between the U.S. and China?

ANSWER: The U.S. and China will have tense words over how much each other supports their ally in the region.  Eventually, there will be an agreement between the U.S. and China that they will cooperate more in fighting terrorist groups wherever they reside.


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